John Rubino – Gold, Silver, And PM Stocks Shining Bright Amidst The Market and Macroeconomic Volatility
John Rubino, [Substack https://rubino.substack.com/ ], joins us to reflect on the reasons why gold, silver, and the precious metals stocks have continued to outshine the macroeconomic turbulence and general market volatility.
We start off discussing the strength in the overall precious metals complex, where silver and the PM stocks have followed gold higher in more an overall flight to safety. John points out that many companies have had positive Q4 earnings reports and wide margins and that is becoming more obvious to generalist investors that scan for outperforming market segments. The conversation then shifts to which ways these gold stocks and silver stocks should attract more investors, by either returning capital to shareholders by way of dividends or share buys back, or if they should focus on growth through acquisitions and merger transactions. John wants to see smart transactions, and not just growth for growth’s sake, but feels the building cash reserves of the mining stocks will become large enough that they feel compelled to go out and purchase more mines and more ounces.
We then wrap up reviewing potential paths forward through all the macroeconomic and geopolitical friction with the Trump administration tariffs, in North America, Europe, and Asia, noting the effects on inflation expectations, the sovereign debt loads, immigration, and global trade. There are a mix of different elements creating uncertainty, and factoring into the further buying of gold by both central banks and global citizens in this current macroeconomic environment.
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Gold futures pricing just popped up over $3,000 about a half hour ago. Drifting back down in the $2990’s again now, but it is going to be interesting to see where gold closes the day/week tomorrow.
Woke up early to check, and yes, Gold futures are back above $3000. Currently at $3,006.
Man, if only we had listened to people over a year ago and sold all our gold and put in Cash. Haha! 😉
I’m curious whether this will get the early morning monkey hammer back down here is a while when North American markets get moving, or if the yellow metal will keep running into the Friday session and end of the week close? We have the potential to see our first weekly close above $3K.
>> Here’s a question to mull over: If Q4 was as good as it was for gold producers earnings with an average gold selling price of $2,650-$2,700 for most companies, then how is Q1 going to look with an average gold price of around $2,900?
It should also be mentioned that Silver has been outperforming Gold lately and is back up to $34.70.
Same thought as above on the gold stocks…. If the silver stocks were doing well in Q4 with an average selling price around $29, then how are things going to look in Q1 with an average selling price of $31.50-$32?
We all know that the bigger producers will be adding ounces to their companies by eating some of the smaller developers, explorers, and mid to junior producers. When Calibre took over Marathon Gold and this latest merger between Equinox Gold and Calibre was a disappointment for many of us because the valuations for some of these companies is destroyed for the investor.
What can or should these companies do to protect themselves if they are targets and they want to see themselves and the shareholders get a higher rating for their shares before being absorbed. DT
Hi DT. Good questions. I think having a big portion of the stock in strong hands with multiple strategic investors (2-3 big companies and 1-3 activist investors) spreads around the interest in the company into entities that may vote down a takeover that is not as attractive.
Cory and I interviews Ryan King from Calibre today, and I’ll be releasing that interview in the morning, but in it he states that Calibre starting considering a future merger with Equinox many months ago. Ross Beaty made that same point in an interview he gave at BMO, that the discussions started 7-8 months ago.
They see the Calibre team as being able to optimize the value of the Equinox assets for investors that hang on for the combined pro-forma company, and then people will see far more than just a paltry takeover premium. That’s an interesting angle to consider. We’ll see how it goes…as I’m going to let my Calibre shares convert over to the new Equinox company.
CXB making this deal is like Putin giving in to Trump on a cease fire. They just got an excellent foot hold in Nfld with heaps of potential so why give it away. Beauty and Trump successful guys, both persuasive talkers.
According to Ryan, they are working to replicate what they did with Newmarket Gold, where they found the high-grade gold at the Fosterville mine, and then seeked out Kirkland Lake to merge with them on a zero-premium deal, to make a better overall combined company.
Personally, I still think Calibre would have had much more leverage by waiting until they had first gold pour at Valentine and then after getting rerated higher for going into production, then doing the merger, as these optics of doing the deal before first gold pour don’t look as good. Ryan mentioned that the M&A deal may not have worked for EQX at that time though, and they may have gone a different direction, so one never really knows the complexities of all the behind-the-scenes negotiations.
If you are looking for the next Fosterville, Eric Sprott and Quinton H. think it’s at NFGC.
Where will the metals for the robot revolution come from?
10 billion humanoid robots will need a lot of critical metals
The Oregon Group – Substack – Mar 13, 2025
Rare Earths
“Rare earth elements (RREs) are critical for advanced magnets, especially neodymium-iron-boron (NdFeB) magnets to provide the magnetic strength necessary to enable precision movements of robotic arms, hands, and actuators.
Manufacturing 10 billion robots by 2040 would require x186 the current annual global production of NdFeB magnets; to build 63 million robots would require x1.2 current production.
From 2024 through 2040, Adamas forecasts that global demand for NdFeB magnets will nearly quadruple to more than 880,000 tonnes.
Battery metals
Lithium, cobalt and nickel are critical for the lithium-ion batteries are currently the standard energy source for independently-powered robots.
To build 63 million robots by 2050 — as per Morgan Stanley’s forecast — would need, for example, approx:
83,000 tonnes of nickel, or enough to supply 3.3 million batteries for electric vehicles (EVs)
12,000 metric tons of cobalt, or enough for 2 million EVs
130,000 metric tons of graphite, or enough for more than 2.6 million EVs
Copper
Essential for electrical wiring, motors, and structural components.
10 billion humanoid robots by 2040 would consume the equivalent of x4 the current global annual copper production, according to Adamas. So, with global copper production at 22 million metric tons in 2023, 554,400 metric tons of copper would be needed for 63 million robots.
Other critical minerals needed would also include tungsten, fluorspar, and many others.”
https://theoregongroup.substack.com/p/where-will-the-metals-for-the-robot
Ex, technology is moving so fast these days that what one might consider as necessary now will not be so even the next month, or year. Remember nanoparticles and bioengineering but to name a few there are breakthroughs happening very quickly in multiple fields of science. They may soon be able to produce invisible robots that come together on command to complete a task and then melt away, and then there are fields like teleportation that could completely change the equation. In the very near future, we may not need physical modes of transportation like cars, buses, and subways.
On another note, Ares Strategic metals will have the lost sheep mine in Utah up and running in the next quarter and they will be the only producers of fluorspar in the US. Their fluorspar also contains gallium and germanium which will be separated in this new plant they are building. DT
Nanoparticle breakthrough!!!!!! DT
Thanks for the heads up on the nanoparticles DT.
A list of products from the US subject to 25% tariffs effective March 13th, 2025. If it has wood or steel, it has a tariff. DT
I fully anticipate PM’s getting pushed lower today. No way they let gold close above $3,000 ….
Yeah, it looks that way Wolfster. As I was concerned about, they monkey-hammered the open in the PMs crushing back down gold and silver from where they were trading in overseas markets and the pre-market trading. We’ve seen this movie so many times….
Maybe there were so many people that just saw gold above $3,000 that there will be a swelling bid that overwhelms the shorts as this day progresses. (Fingers crossed)
Collective Mining Announces Investment and Early Exercise of Warrants by Agnico Eagle for Gross Proceeds of C$63.4 Million
March 14, 2025
Collective Mining Drills its Best Hole to Date at the Recently Discovered Ramp Zone by Intersecting 75.80 Metres at 8.01 g/t Gold Equivalent
March 12, 2025
I keep wanting to ring the register on my Collective Mining trade, and then more amazing news will drop, and I’ll think OK good I held on. I was going to sell after the great drill hole was returned on the 12th but got busy and thought I’ll just wait a bit longer. Then the gold price rocketed higher yesterday, and then they come out today and blow my mind with the news that the best gold mining company on the planet, Agnico Eagle, is coming back in for a stake and considering getting busy again in Colombia.
Once again, I’m still debating ringing the register on this trade, thinking, this is about as good as it gets, but don’t want to clip its wings too early. I took a small tranche off last week, but left the rest of the position on, and it has risen by over a buck since then. This stock has been ripping for so long that I just feel like it has to top out at one point soon.
Any thoughts from other technicians out there on where the buying exhaustion may come in?
The price action in the premarket went all the way up to $8.84, then dropped like a hot knife through butter all the way back down to the $7.80s. Is this the selling capitulation signal, or is the news from Agnico Eagle both a good and bad thing simultaneously?
Ex – Going back to 2022 the ABC is: 1.49 ~ 5.26 ~ 2.25 (June 2024) ~ D:
‘Normal’ extension (1:1) is $6.02. Usual ‘Top’ extension (1:1.618) is $8.35.
With ‘A’ the November low the ABC is: 3.32 ~ 6.85 ~ 5.56 (March 4th) ~ D:
‘Normal’ extension (1:1) is $9.09. Usual ‘Top’ extension (1:1.618) is $11.27.
Thanks for those levels BDC. I ended up fading out of collective at 8.14, 8.46, 8.48. I was happy with my returns, but can see the case for it to keep running to those higher extensions. Perhaps I left money on the table, but I felt it was prudent to pull my chips off the table for now…
The first ABCD is often the most accurate.
Columbia’s Gold Fields are being compared to what the structure is like in the Witwatersrand Gold deposits found in South Africa. If that is the case Collective Mining could be the “Holy Grail”.
Great graphic on physical silver to paper silver IrishT!
Stock Market Today: S&P 500 Suffers Correction After Trump Threatens Europe With More Tariffs
The benchmark stock index is down more than 10% from its Feb. 19 record high
Angus Berwick – Wall Street Journal – March 13, 2025
“Stocks weathered another rough day Thursday with investors on edge over new tariff threats and mixed inflation news.The S&P 500 dropped 1.4% and suffered its first correction since October 2023, a decline of more than 10% from its Feb. 19 record high. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite declined nearly 2%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.3%.”
“President Trump threatened to impose 200% tariffs on alcohol imports from the European Union after the bloc hit back at his levies on steel and aluminum imports.”
“That pattern of announcements and imposition of tariffs in fairly rapid fashion is unsettling the markets,” said Jason Pride, chief of investment strategy and research at Glenmede.
https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/stock-market-today-inflation-dow-nasdaq-sp500-03-13-2025